In the aftermath of the Israel-Gaza conflict, the global aviation sector witnessed a downturn in international air travel demand, dealing a setback to its recovery from the ongoing challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to ForwardKeys, a travel data analysis company, there was a notable decline of five percentage points in international flight bookings within the three weeks post the initiation of hostilities on October 7, compared to the preceding three weeks.
This unexpected slump has compelled a downward revision of the fourth-quarter outlook by 7 percentage points, bringing it to 88% of 2019 levels, down from the optimistic prewar forecast of 95% made on October 27.
The repercussions of the conflict have transcended the immediate region, affecting global travel sentiment. Olivier Ponti, Vice President of Insights at ForwardKeys, highlighted the broader impact, stating, “This war is a catastrophic, heart-breaking, human tragedy that we are all seeing daily on our TV screens. That is bound to put people off travelling to the region but it has also dented consumer confidence in travelling elsewhere, too.”
The ongoing hostilities, marked by Israel’s intensive attacks on Gaza, have led to a tragic loss of lives and mass displacement. The situation has prompted major global airlines to suspend flights to Tel Aviv, citing security concerns. The repercussions are evident in the data, with flight bookings from the Middle East experiencing a decline of 9 percentage points since the outbreak of the conflict.
However, the impact is not confined to the immediate region; it has rippled globally. Flight bookings from the Americas have slowed by 10 percentage points, while international departures from Asia Pacific, Europe, and Africa each recorded a two-percentage-point slowdown.
In a broader perspective, the global scenario for international arrivals has witnessed a deceleration in travel bookings to all regions, except Africa, which continues its recovery towards 2019 levels. Flight bookings to the Americas are down by six percentage points, to Europe by three percentage points, to the Asia Pacific by one percentage point, and to the Middle East by a significant 26 percentage points, as per ForwardKeys data.
Within the Middle East, Israel stands out as the most severely affected, witnessing a staggering 155-percentage-point drop in flight bookings since October 7. Such a steep fall, exceeding 100%, indicates a substantial number of cancellations, depleting the existing stock of bookings. Notable declines in international travel bookings are also observed for Saudi Arabia (down 67 percentage points), Jordan (down 54 percentage points), Lebanon (down 45 percentage points), and Egypt (down 35 percentage points).
Additionally, flight bookings to GCC countries have registered a decline of 25 percentage points since the outbreak of hostilities. The aviation sector faces a challenging period as it navigates through the multifaceted impacts of geopolitical tensions and the ongoing pandemic.
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